08-14-2025, 07:58 PM
Seriously, I think we are 15+ years away from quantum computers being on par with conventional binary systems. It doesn't help living in this age of hype to expect anything sooner. One prominent AI developer predicted a 1-million qubit roll out in 2025... oops, that's not happening, so they rolled that prediction out to meet IBM and Google, in 2030. IBM, hover, came out recently and backed off to 100,000 qubits by 2030. Anyway, it's estimated 20-million qubits will be needed to break RSA-2048 encryption. More will be needed to perform molecular calculations.
In the meantime it looks like we are doomed to repeat the build up of giant computing centers and data storage facilities to do as much as possible by bruit force. It's kind of like how all the NASA computers or the 'moon landing' could fit into a cheap cell phone, today. Unfortunately these massive centers won't come close to quantum levels, no matter how big they get. So sentient AI would be doubtful in the near term, but even without true human level consciousness, I suppose the possibility of running amuck could exist, because they would probably be writing their own software. Imagine The Terminator without a personality. Okay, it was played by Schwarzenegger, so I guess that's not too difficult.
Pete
In the meantime it looks like we are doomed to repeat the build up of giant computing centers and data storage facilities to do as much as possible by bruit force. It's kind of like how all the NASA computers or the 'moon landing' could fit into a cheap cell phone, today. Unfortunately these massive centers won't come close to quantum levels, no matter how big they get. So sentient AI would be doubtful in the near term, but even without true human level consciousness, I suppose the possibility of running amuck could exist, because they would probably be writing their own software. Imagine The Terminator without a personality. Okay, it was played by Schwarzenegger, so I guess that's not too difficult.
Pete